At a press conference this morning CL&P President and COO Jeff Butler commented that this storm was “far more significant than what had been forecasted.”
Interesting. Obviously CL&P either has a private forecasting firm that is just plain bad or they were not listening to some of us degreed meteorologists on TV in the state that were forecasting a crippling snowstorm. Friday morning Bob Maxon and I were forecasting up to a foot of snow that was “record-shattering and historic”. 36 hours out it’s not everyday we use words like “record-shattering” and “historic”.
In addition we were playing up the “impact” more than the actual amounts. With leaves on the trees and the heavy, wet type of snow expected we knew power outages could be a huge deal. It happened in greater Albany in 1987 and was most certainly on our minds.
Here’s my blog post from Friday morning 10/28:
“One of the reasons I’m unusually concerned about this storm is that the amount of leaves on the trees make them particularly vulnerable to damage. If the snow is of the heavy and wet variety we could have major and widespread power outages. We’re in uncharted territory here in terms of this type of storm this early in the season.”
This is from Thursday 10/27 (a full 48 hours before first flakes):
“A major snowstorm is on the way and will likely be a historic and unprecedented early season snowstorm. All the parameters and models are showing significant snow totals across the state.
Obviously the time of year gives me pause. The biggest October storm in the greater Hartford area was only 1.7″ back in 1979. The biggest storm in the entire state was 9.5″ in the town of Norfolk on October 4, 1987. Still, records are made to be broken and I am quite confident that in many areas this will be the biggest October snowstorm in recorded history.
It’s possible, but at this point not likely, that the storm will trend west and bring more rain as opposed to snow. It’s something to watch. The big concern for this storm may be damage to trees and powerlines given the amount of trees that are still fully foliated!”
The NWS was banging the drum too on Friday. Here are two discussions from Friday morning and Friday afternoon from the NWS in Albany. Notice the use of the word catastrophic!
“WE ARE NOT GOING TO TAKE ANY CHANCES WITH THIS STORM. THERE COULD
BE A MAJOR SOCIETAL IMPACT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA. LEAVES ARE ON THE TREES IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH/…AND ACROSS SOME OF THE HILLS. 3 TO 6
INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW COULD BE VERY PERILOUS BRINGING DOWN
NUMEROUS LIMBS AND POWER LINES. WE HAVE TRIED TO EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE
WATCH STATEMENT ! POTENTIALLY…THERE COULD BE NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES. DESPITE NOT HITTING THE 7 INCH OR GREATER CRITERIA…WE
FEEL THIS WATCH IS NECESSARY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL SOCIETAL IMPACT.”
“POWERFUL WINTER LIKE STORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON SATURDAY AND AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL
BE A HISTORIC OCTOBER SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE TO TREES
AND POWER LINES IN THE AREAS WHERE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND
EXTENSIVE FOLLIAGE REMAINS ON THE TREES.”
I understand the need to make excuses but this should not have been a surprise. For one of the most anomalous storms of our lifetimes this was exceptionally well predicted 36-48 hours out.