It’s hard to believe we are even going to entertain the idea of February 2015 being the coldest month ever recorded in the Hartford area. In the current climate regime, plus urbanization around climate sites, it’s even more impressive that we are running more than a half degree ahead of the exceptional cold from February 1934.
To put 15.9 degrees in perspective, the average February temperature in the Hartford area is 29.7 degrees which is a full 13.8 degrees below normal! This monthly mean temperature is also colder than a typical February in Minneapolis, Burlington (VT), and Anchorage. In fact Anchorage’s average February temperature is 18.7 degrees!
So will we beat the 1934 record? Using raw model guidance from the GFS MOS and our current temperature departure we can get an idea at how things will shake out through 2/26. With average highs in the low 40s by the end of February – maintaining such a wildly negative departure is very, very, very hard to do.
Using this model guidance, today’s likely high and low, and the previous 18 days I get a mean temperature of 16.31 degrees through 2/26. We will most certainly be within striking distance of the coldest month on record.
If it’s going to be so damn cold we might as well break this exceptionally impressive and long standing record! If we break the record in the Hartford area we will likely break the record in Bridgeport as well since they are currently running 1.4 degrees colder than the previous coldest month on record January 2004.
While this incredible cold is gripping the northeastern U.S. the rest of the globe is looking mighty toasty. By far the coldest location relative to average this month is right here in our backyard. Very warm temperatures continue across most of Asia, north Africa, the middle east, and the western U.S.